Apple’s Pivot: Project Titan

Neil Cybart, the author of the Above Avalon blog, pens the most compelling piece that I have read to date about Apple’s next big thing: Project Titan–“a start-up” within Apple focused on the electric car industry.

Meanwhile, Tim Cook has remained very tight-lipped about Apple’s future, which gives the impression that Apple isn’t working on ground-breaking ideas or products that can move the company beyond the iPhone. Instead of labeling this as a mistake or misstep, Apple’s product secrecy is a key ingredient of its success. People like to be surprised. Another reason Apple takes a much different approach to product secrecy and R&D is its business model. Being open about future product plans will likely have a negative impact on near-term Apple hardware sales. Companies like Facebook and Google don’t suffer from a similar risk. The end result is that there is a legitimate disconnect between Apple’s R&D trends and the consensus view of the company’s product pipeline. Apple is telling us that they are working on something very big, and yet no one seems to notice or care.

The increased R&D spending by Apple over the last couple of years is very telling:

Apple is not spending $10 billion on R&D just to come up with new Watch bands, larger iPads, or a video streaming service. Instead, Apple is planning on something much bigger: a pivot into the automobile industry. 

The word “pivot” has become a buzzword lately, often misused to simply mean change. In reality, pivoting is actually a sign of strength as a company takes what it learns from one business model in one market and applies it a new one with a different business model. Apple would be taking lessons learned from its long-standing view on the world based on the Mac, iPod, and broader iOS lineup to begin selling an electric car.

This sounds incredibly ambitious and bold, and that is the point. Apple wants to move beyond the iPhone. In this regard, pivot seems like the wrong word to use since the iPhone is a very successful product generating more cash flows than the rest of Apple’s product line put together times two. However, it is this success that ultimately serves as the greatest motivation for Apple management to figure out the next big thing.

If you’re at all interested in Apple and the future product pipeline, I highly recommend reading “Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot is Coming.”

On NYC’s Open Data Portal and Parking Tickets

The author of the I Quant NY blog profiles an excellent use of of NYC’s Open Data portal in a post detailing how the city has been systematically ticketing legally parked cars:

As of late 2008, in NYC you can park in front of a sidewalk pedestrian ramp, as long as it’s not connected to a crosswalk.  It’s all written up in the NYC Traffic Rules, and for more detail, take a look at this article.

Is it a problem that drivers don’t realize that there are some extra parking spots they are now allowed to park in?  Not so much.  But, I’ve got a pedestrian ramp leading to nowhere particular in the middle of my block in Brooklyn, and on occasion I have parked there.  Despite the fact that it is legal, I’ve been ticketed for parking there.  Though I get the tickets dismissed, it’s a waste of everybody’s time. And that got me wondering- How common is it for the police to give tickets to cars legally parked in front of pedestrian ramps?  It couldn’t be just me…

In the past, there was not much you could do to stop something like this. Complaining to your local precinct would at best only solve the problem locally.  But thanks to NYC’s Open Data portal, I was able to look at the most common parking spots in the City where cars were ticketed for blocking pedestrian ramps.   It’s worth taking a moment upfront here to praise the NYPD for offering this dataset to begin with.  Though we are behind on police crime data in the city, we are ahead in other ways and the parking ticket dataset is definitely one of them.  

The response from the NYPD that the author received speaks volume (an admission of mistake and a promise to get it right with the proper training):

Mr. Wellington’s analysis identified errors the department made in issuing parking summonses. It appears to be a misunderstanding by officers on patrol of a recent, abstruse change in the parking rules.  We appreciate Mr. Wellington bringing this anomaly to our attention.

The department’s internal analysis found that patrol officers who are unfamiliar with the change have observed vehicles parked in front of pedestrian ramps and issued a summons in error. When the rule changed in 2009 to allow for certain pedestrian ramps to be blocked by parked vehicles, the department focused training on traffic agents, who write the majority of summonses.

Yet, the majority of summonses written for this code violation were written by police officers. As a result, the department sent a training message to all officers clarifying the rule change and has communicated to commanders of precincts with the highest number of summonses, informing them of the issues within their command.

Thanks to this analysis and the availability of this open data, the department is also taking steps to digitally monitor these types of summonses to ensure that they are being issued correctly.

Worth reading in entirety here.

On the 30 Year Anniversary of the Chernobyl Disaster

Today marks the 30th anniversary since the Chernobyl nuclear power plant explosion on April 26, 1986 in Ukraine.

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve watched a few documentaries that do an excellent job summarizing how the disaster unfolded, the impact the disaster has had on the population of Ukraine and Belarus (as well as other world regions impacted by the nuclear fallout), and the still-ongoing efforts to contain the spread of the radioactivity.

The three documentaries I recommend are below. First, The Battle of Chernobyl (incorrectly titled as “Chernobyl Uncensored” in one YouTube video) is a 2006 documentary (approximately one and a half hours in length) that stars Mikhail Gorbachev, former president of the U.S.S.R., providing excellent commentary throughout:

Second, the documentary Zero Hour creates a minute-by-minute breakdown of the accident at Reactor #4 at Chernobyl (from about an hour before the accident to approximately 48 hours after the accident):

 

Finally, the documentary Chernobyl 3828 is perhaps the most poignant of the documentaries, profiling the 3828 human workers (who came to be known as liquidators or “bio-robots”) that were sent into the most radioactive zone—the roof of the reactor #4—in September 1986 to finish cleaning up the radioactive waste before the sarcophagus over the reactor could be built. There was such high levels of radioactivity in this area that robots sent from Western Europe had their electronics fried in less than 48 hours. The clean-up effort, nevertheless, had to go on—and these bio-robots would sacrifice themselves for the greater cause. These workers received the most lethal doses of the radiation (background radiation of ~8,000 Roentgens), and what is agonizing to watch is the struggle the commander of the operation has to face, knowing that he is ultimately sending these men to their early deaths. The narrator of the documentary, Valeriy Starodumov, worked as a dosimeter scout at the Chernobyl clean-up site; in the documentary, he trains and takes the soldiers to the zone of the highest contamination. And so, a conveyor of bio-robots begins, and Starodumov narrates:

I will take a few hundred people through the zone. I will not know who they are, I will not see their faces behind protective masks and I will never know what is going to happen to them afterwards. It was not me who had made a decision to send these men to the zones of mortal danger, but each night some inexplicable feeling of guilt brings me back to the past. To that first two-minute shift, which has been continues for me for a quarter of century…

 

 

The NFL Schedule is a Massive Optimization Problem

This is a fascinating Los Angeles Times piece that profiles the computing power that is required to generate the NFL schedule. A team of four members and hundreds of computers are used to sift through 26,000+ conditions, with trillions of possible permutations, to generate the 2016 NFL schedule:

With 256 games, 17 weeks, six time slots, five networks and four possible game days — Sunday, Monday, Thursday and Saturday — there are hundreds of trillions of potential schedule combinations. Katz and his team are searching for the single best, and they have as many as 255 computers around the world running 24/7 to find the closest possible match to the ideal slate of games.

The schedules that have come out in the last couple of years are much more sophisticated:

Among the scheduling elements that are factored in now, but were not deeply considered in the old days: How much is a team traveling, and how far? Is someone playing a road game against a team coming off its bye week? Is anyone playing a road game six days after being on the road on a Monday night? Is a club overloaded with consecutive opponents who made the playoffs the previous season? Has a team gone multiple seasons with its bye at Week 5 or earlier?

An incredible optimization problem. The ultimate schedule that was selected was hand-judged against 333 other schedules generated by the computers to make sure it was the most optimal schedule.

Read the rest here. Here is the 2016 NFL schedule.

On the Minecraft Phenomenon

Clive Thompson, writing in The New York Times, profiles the gaming phenomenon that is Minecraft. It’s a really interesting read on the appeal of the game for both children and adults:

Minecraft is thus an almost perfect game for our current educational moment, in which policy makers are eager to increase kids’ interest in the “STEM” disciplines — science, technology, engineering and math. Schools and governments have spent millions on “let’s get kids coding” initiatives, yet it may well be that Minecraft’s impact will be greater. This is particularly striking given that the game was not designed with any educational purpose in mind.

 On how the game teaches kids autonomy, negotiation, and empathy:

But Minecraft is unusual because Microsoft doesn’t control all the servers where players gather online. There is no single Minecraft server that everyone around the world logs onto. Sometimes kids log onto a for-­profit server to play mini­games; sometimes they rent a server for themselves and their friends. (Microsoft and Mojang run one such rental service.) Or sometimes they do it free at home: If you and I are in the same room and we both have tablets running Minecraft, I can invite you into my Minecraft world through Wi-Fi.

What this means is that kids are constantly negotiating what are, at heart, questions of governance. Will their world be a free-for-all, in which everyone can create and destroy everything? What happens if someone breaks the rules? Should they, like London, employ plug-ins to prevent damage, in effect using software to enforce property rights? There are now hundreds of such governance plug-ins.

Worth clicking through to see the illustrations done by Christoph Niemann.

The Difference between Affluent, Rich, and Super-Rich

One of the best things I’ve read this week is Ben Casnocha’s blog post titled “The Goldilocks Theory of Being Rich” on what it means to be rich. In the post, Ben correctly posits that today there’s a very small difference between the rich and the American middle class in terms of quality of life. In the post, Ben differentiates among affluent, rich, and the super-rich…

The actual best part about being super rich, as far as I can tell, is this: You’re more likely to feel like you led a life of meaning. You might not be happy all the time or most of the time, but you will feel like your time on this earth counted for something. One way to distinguish happiness from meaning is that happiness is the day to day bounce of emotions while meaning is what you feel when you step back, take a minute, and reflect on what will go in your obituary. (Here’s my post on meaning vs. happiness.)

How so? The feeling of meaning and making a difference manifests in real, concrete ways. Someone like Meg Whitman can walk the HP campus and see thousands of employees who support their families thanks to employment at HP; she can read stories about the millions of people who use HP products every day to be better at their job. That imbues her life with a sense that her life matters. If you don’t have a corporate campus to walk around—if, for example, you’re an options trader and not a builder of things—fear not. With a supple bank account, you can still take actions that generate meaning. Write big checks to charity and you’ll get thank you notes from the children at the public school you helped. You’ll get enough feel-good ooze from your charitable giving to last you a lifetime. Entrepreneur and billionaire Marc Benioff has said, “Nothing is going to make you feel better. Philanthropy is absolutely the best drug I’ve ever taken.”

I liked this analogy posited by Tim O’Reilly:

…money is like gasoline while driving. You never want to run out, but the point of life is not to go on a tour of gas stations.

The distinction between affluent, rich, and super-rich:

Maybe wealth needs its own Goldilocks porridge story: you want not too much, not too little. And I think that ideal middle ground is the “Rich” category in the hierarchy I opened with. More crudely, this ideal amount of money is termed “fuck-you money.” With fuck you money, you can’t fly around the world on a private jet (so you’re not as rich as the Super Rich) but do you have the power to say fuck you to essentially anyone or anything that doesn’t interest you (which means you’re richer than the merely affluent).

Put another way, if you work on stuff that doesn’t excite you for more than one day a week, in my estimation you do not have fuck-you money. You’re still working for the man. At the other end of the spectrum, if you find yourself being invited to more than a few charity galas a year, worrying about physical and cyber security at your home, and asking a PR person to review your public statements, you have a lot more than fuck-you money and all the corresponding drawbacks.

Definitely worth reading this thought-provoking post in its entirety.

Pablo Picasso’s Multi-Billion Dollar Empire

I enjoyed this piece in Vanity Fair on Pablo Picasso’s multi-billion dollar empire.

Picasso did not leave a will. The division of his holdings took six years, with often bitter negotiations among the heirs. (There were seven then.) The settlement cost $30 million and produced what has been described as a saga worthy of Balzac. The family, writer Deborah Trustman noted at the time, “resembles one of Picasso’s Cubist constructions—wives, mistresses, legitimate and illegitimate children (his youngest born 28 years after his oldest), and grandchildren—all strung on an axis like the backbone of a figure with unmatched parts.”

It is unbelievable how prolific Picasso was:

When Picasso died, 43 years ago at the age of 91, he left an astounding number of works—more than 45,000 in all. (“We’d have to rent the Empire State Building to house all the works,” Claude Picasso said when the inventory was completed.) There were 1,885 paintings, 1,228 sculptures, 7,089 drawings, 30,000 prints, 150 sketchbooks, and 3,222 ceramic works.

Much more here.